Table 3 Multistate models for the transition to cluster 3 (“Likely Dementia”)

Low education

1.92 (1.58–2.33)

1.32 (0.91–1.9)

1.86 (1.6–2.17)

1.18 (0.86–1.61)

1.77 (1.52–2.07)

0.97 (0.67–1.4)

Hearing loss

1.74 (1.45–2.09)

1.23 (0.85–1.79)

1.38 (1.2–1.59)

1.03 (0.75–1.42)

1.2 (1.03–1.4)

0.88 (0.59–1.32)

Hypertension

1.35 (1.14–1.16)

1.24 (0.9–1.72)

1.36 (1.2–1.55)

1.14 (0.86–1.5)

1.34 (1.17–1.53)

1.09 (0.76–1.55)

Drinking (> 21 units)

0.79 (0.55–1.14)

0.42 (0.16–1.09)

1.25 (0.99–1.58)

0.36 (0.13–1.04)

1.37 (1.09–1.73)

0.54 (0.21–1.41)

Smoking

1.45 (1.13–1.87)

1.29 (0.73–2.29)

1.64 (1.36–1.99)

2.23 (1.57–3.16)

1.7 (1.39–2.07)

2.68 (1.79–4.03)

Depression

2.51 (1.06–3.07)

2.39 (1.62–3.53)

2.05 (1.76–2.4)

1.98 (1.42–2.77)

1.78 (1.51–2.11)

1.65 (1.07–2.54)

Social isolation

1.66 (1.39–1.98)

2.31 (1.51–3.53)

1.61 (1.4–1.86)

1.6 (1.15–2.24)

1.56 (1.35–1.81)

1.15 (0.79–1.68)

Physical inactivity

3.66 (2.97–4.51)

3.21 (2.12–4.87)

2.48 (2.07–2.97)

2.89 (2–4.17)

2.09 (1.72–2.54)

1.33 (0.68–2.6)

Diabetes

2.4 (1.94–2.96)

1.32 (0.79–2.21)

2.15 (1.82–2.54)

1.32 (0.85–2.05)

2.22 (1.88–2.62)

0.88 (0.45–1.73)

Obesity

1.7 (1.39–2.07)

1.58 (1.08–2.32)

1.65 (1.41–1.93)

1.43 (1.01–2.01)

1.76 (1.5–2.06)

1.32 (0.83–2.1)

Air Pollution

0.84 (0.7–1.02)

1.26 (0.83–1.9)

0.92 (0.79–1.07)

1.32 (0.92–1.89)

0.94 (0.81–1.1)

1.32 (0.83–2.08)