Fig. 4

Prediction of incident ACD, AD, and VaD. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves show the predictive performance of MetRS, either alone or in combination with demographic and cognitive indicators, for all incident cases (A–C), as well as for over 10-year incident cases (D–F) of ACD, AD, and VaD. The dotted line indicates an AUC of 0.50 for comparison. AUC estimates and 95% CIs are shown in Table S10. Abbreviations: AUC, area under the curve; ACD, all-cause dementia; AD, Alzheimer’s disease; VaD, vascular dementia