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Table 3 Progression probabilities after 1 year, 3 years, and 5 years

From: Personalized risk for clinical progression in cognitively normal subjects—the ABIDE project

  Demographics only CSF
  Age Sex MMSE   Normal AB abnormal Tau abnormal Both abnormal
1 year 55 m 30 2% [0–2] 0% [0–1] 0% [0–2] 12% [3–38] 26% [7–71]
  27 3% [2–5] 0% [0–2] 0% [1–5] 26% [8–65] 51% [18–92]
f 30 2% [0–2] 0% [0–1] 0% [0–1] 6% [2–23] 15% [4–48]
  27 3% [2–5] 0% [0–1] 0% [1–3] 15% [4–44] 32% [9–77]
70 m 30 5% [3–9] 5% [2–15] 13% [5–34] 4% [1–11] 8% [3–20]
  27 11% [7–16] 12% [5–30] 29% [11–64] 9% [3–21] 19% [9–36]
f 30 5% [3–9] 3% [1–9] 7% [2–22] 3% [1–6] 5% [2–12]
  27 11% [7–16] 7% [2–22] 16% [5–46] 5% [2–12] 10% [4–24]
3 years 55 m 30 4% [2–8] 0% [0–2] 1% [1–6] 32% [10–78] 60% [20–98]
  27 9% [6–14] 1% [0–5] 2% [0–12] 60% [23–95] 89% [44–99]
f 30 4% [2–8] 0% [0–1] 1% [0–3] 19% [5–55] 39% [11–87]
  27 9% [6–14] 0% [0–3] 1% [0–7] 39% [12–84] 69% [26–99]
70 m 30 15% [10–21] 16% [6–39] 35% [14–72] 13% [4–27] 23% [11–46]
  27 28% [21–37] 33% [14–71] 64% [30–96] 24% [10–49] 48% [28–71]
f 30 15% [10–21] 9% [3–25] 21% [7–53] 7% [3–16] 16% [6–29]
  27 28% [21–37] 21% [7–53] 43% [15–85] 14% [5–32] 29% [14–50]
5 years 55 m 30 6% [3–11] 1% [0–3] 1% [0–8] 43% [13–89] 73% [27–98]
  27 12% [8–20] 1% [1–7] 4% [1–17] 73% [30–99] 96% [56–100]
f 30 6% [3–11] 0% [0–2] 1% [0–4] 25% [7–69] 51% [16–94]
  27 12% [8–20] 1% [0–4] 2% [0–10] 50% [17–93] 81% [35–98]
70 m 30 20% [14–29] 22% [9–51] 47% [19–84] 17% [6–36] 32% [16–58]
  27 38% [29–49] 44% [19–83] 78% [39–98] 32% [24–62] 60% [38–83]
f 30 20% [14–29] 13% [4–34] 28% [10–66] 10% [5–22] 21% [8–38]
  27 38% [29–49] 28% [10–66] 55% [20–94] 20% [10–39] 39% [20–66]
  1. Biomarker values were selected as 90th percentile (normal, −) and 10th percentile (abnormal, +); for Tau, 10th percentile was selected as normal (−) and 90th percentile as abnormal (+). Note that this table is an example, as the model can provide individualized risk estimates for any given value. Data are % [95% CI]. For CSF, −/− AB and Tau negative: +/− AB positive and Tau negative; −/+ AB negative and Tau positive; +/+ AB and Tau positive