Table 3 Predictive value of hippocampal measures for cognitive decline in cognitively normal subjects

Burnham et al., 2016 [85]

AIBL

N = 573

6 years

73

Hippocampal volume

Subjects with low hippocampal volume and evidence of amyloid pathology showed faster cognitive decline compared with subjects with normal biomarkers. Subjects with only decreased hippocampal volume in the absence of amyloid pathology did not show significant decline compared to the normal biomarker group

den Heijer et al., 2010 [83]

Rotterdam study (population-based)

N = 518

8 years

73–79

Hippocampal atrophy rate

Hippocampal atrophy rates predict cognitive decline in healthy subjects (HR 1.6, 1.2–2.3).

den Heijer et al., 2006 [82]

Rotterdam study (population-based)

N = 511

6 years

73–79

Hippocampal volume

Hippocampal volume associated with risk of dementia (HR 3.0, 2.0–4.6).

Martin et al., 2010 [84]

University of Kentucky AD Centre

N = 71

5 years

78–84

Hippocampal and subregions volume; entorhinal cortex volume

Greater atrophy in hippocampus (head and body) and entorhinal cortex in subjects converting to MCI. AUC 0.87 for hippocampal head, 0.84 for hippocampal body, 0.79 for entorhinal cortex.

Stoub et al., 2005 [94]

Rush Alzheimer’s Disease Center (Chicago, USA)

N = 58 (CN and MCI together)

5 years

80

Hippocampal volume and atrophy rates; entorhinal cortex volume and atrophy rates

Baseline entorhinal and slope of decline were predictors for AD. Baseline hippocampal volume and atrophy rates were not (after controlling for entorhinal cortex).