Incremental value of biomarker combinations to predict progression of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s dementia

Table 3 The 10 single predictors and the five best two- to four-predictor classification results predicting progression from MCI to AD dementia

Predictors				AUC	Youden index	Sensitivity	Specificity	PPV	NPV
Single predictors
t-Tau				0.77	1.48	0.62	0.86	0.42	0.93
HCV				0.74	1.45	0.63	0.82	0.42	0.92
CDR-sb				0.73	1.38	0.45	0.93	0.35	0.95
CERAD-DR				0.72	1.39	0.64	0.75	0.40	0.89
MMSE				0.71	1.36	0.68	0.68	0.40	0.87
p-Tau				0.69	1.41	0.81	0.61	0.50	0.86
Aβ42				0.68	1.38	0.74	0.64	0.44	0.87
Aβ42/Aβ40				0.66	1.34	0.59	0.75	0.37	0.88
Aβ40				0.55	1.15	0.76	0.39	0.34	0.80
APO E				0.50	1.05	0.41	0.64	0.26	0.47
Two-predictor combinations
t-Tau	HCV			0.81	1.45	0.68	0.77	0.49	0.88
t-Tau	CDR-sb			0.79	1.44	0.83	0.61	0.41	0.92
t-Tau	MMSE			0.79	1.46	0.81	0.65	0.43	0.91
t-Tau	CERAD-DR			0.78	1.43	0.62	0.81	0.52	0.87
p-Tau	HCV			0.77	1.40	0.76	0.64	0.42	0.89
Three-predictor combinations
t-Tau	HCV	CDR-sb		0.83	1.54	0.84	0.70	0.48	0.93
t-Tau	HCV	MMSE		0.81	1.47	0.83	0.64	0.44	0.92
t-Tau	MMSE	CDR-sb		0.81	1.47	0.76	0.70	0.46	0.90
t-Tau	CDR-sb	CERAD-DR		0.80	1.48	0.79	0.70	0.47	0.91
HCV	MMSE	Aβ42/Aβ40		0.80	1.48	0.78	0.70	0.45	0.91
Four-predictor combinations
t-Tau	HCV	CDR-sb	Aβ42/Aβ40	0.82	1.55	0.89	0.67	0.47	0.95
t-Tau	p-Tau	CDR-sb	Aβ42/Aβ40	0.82	1.49	0.78	0.71	0.47	0.91
t-Tau	HCV	p-Tau	Aβ42/Aβ40	0.82	1.49	0.85	0.64	0.42	0.93
t-Tau	HCV	CDR-sb	CERAD-DR	0.81	1.57	0.80	0.76	0.52	0.92
HCV	MMSE	CDR-sb	Aβ42/Aβ40	0.81	1.51	0.86	0.65	0.46	0.93

The predictors are sorted according to the AUC
All values correspond to mean bootstrap-based cross-validated performance
Aβ40 amyloid-beta_1–40, Aβ42 amyloid-beta_1–42, AD Alzheimer’s disease, AUC area under the curve, CDR-sb Clinical Dementia Rating–sum-of-boxes, CERAD-DR Consortium to Establish a Registry of Dementia–delayed recall, HCV hippocampal volume, MCI cognitive impairment, MMSE Mini-Mental State Examination, NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value, p-Tau phosphorylated tau, t-Tau total tau

ISSN: 1758-9193