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Table 3 The 10 single predictors and the five best two- to four-predictor classification results predicting progression from MCI to AD dementia

From: Incremental value of biomarker combinations to predict progression of mild cognitive impairment to Alzheimer’s dementia

Predictors AUC Youden index Sensitivity Specificity PPV NPV
Single predictors
 t-Tau     0.77 1.48 0.62 0.86 0.42 0.93
 HCV     0.74 1.45 0.63 0.82 0.42 0.92
 CDR-sb     0.73 1.38 0.45 0.93 0.35 0.95
 CERAD-DR     0.72 1.39 0.64 0.75 0.40 0.89
 MMSE     0.71 1.36 0.68 0.68 0.40 0.87
 p-Tau     0.69 1.41 0.81 0.61 0.50 0.86
 Aβ42     0.68 1.38 0.74 0.64 0.44 0.87
 Aβ42/Aβ40     0.66 1.34 0.59 0.75 0.37 0.88
 Aβ40     0.55 1.15 0.76 0.39 0.34 0.80
 APO E     0.50 1.05 0.41 0.64 0.26 0.47
Two-predictor combinations
 t-Tau HCV    0.81 1.45 0.68 0.77 0.49 0.88
 t-Tau CDR-sb    0.79 1.44 0.83 0.61 0.41 0.92
 t-Tau MMSE    0.79 1.46 0.81 0.65 0.43 0.91
 t-Tau CERAD-DR    0.78 1.43 0.62 0.81 0.52 0.87
 p-Tau HCV    0.77 1.40 0.76 0.64 0.42 0.89
Three-predictor combinations
 t-Tau HCV CDR-sb   0.83 1.54 0.84 0.70 0.48 0.93
 t-Tau HCV MMSE   0.81 1.47 0.83 0.64 0.44 0.92
 t-Tau MMSE CDR-sb   0.81 1.47 0.76 0.70 0.46 0.90
 t-Tau CDR-sb CERAD-DR   0.80 1.48 0.79 0.70 0.47 0.91
 HCV MMSE Aβ42/Aβ40   0.80 1.48 0.78 0.70 0.45 0.91
Four-predictor combinations
 t-Tau HCV CDR-sb Aβ42/Aβ40 0.82 1.55 0.89 0.67 0.47 0.95
 t-Tau p-Tau CDR-sb Aβ42/Aβ40 0.82 1.49 0.78 0.71 0.47 0.91
 t-Tau HCV p-Tau Aβ42/Aβ40 0.82 1.49 0.85 0.64 0.42 0.93
 t-Tau HCV CDR-sb CERAD-DR 0.81 1.57 0.80 0.76 0.52 0.92
 HCV MMSE CDR-sb Aβ42/Aβ40 0.81 1.51 0.86 0.65 0.46 0.93
  1. The predictors are sorted according to the AUC
  2. All values correspond to mean bootstrap-based cross-validated performance
  3. Aβ40 amyloid-beta1–40, Aβ42 amyloid-beta1–42, AD Alzheimer’s disease, AUC area under the curve, CDR-sb Clinical Dementia Rating–sum-of-boxes, CERAD-DR Consortium to Establish a Registry of Dementia–delayed recall, HCV hippocampal volume, MCI cognitive impairment, MMSE Mini-Mental State Examination, NPV negative predictive value, PPV positive predictive value, p-Tau phosphorylated tau, t-Tau total tau
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