Cumulative impact of health deficits, social vulnerabilities, and protective factors on cognitive dynamics in late life: a multistate modeling approach

Table 2 Parameter estimates for Poisson models examining cognitive transitions over 3 and 6 years

	Model 1 Frailty index	Model 2Social vulnerability index	Model 3 Protective factors index	Model 4 All indices
Wave 1 to wave 2
Intercept	1.93 (1.72, 2.14)	1.80 (1.58, 2.02)	2.81 (2.47, 3.15)	2.13 (1.72, 2.55)
Baseline cognitive state	0.90 (0.87, 0.94)	0.91(0.88, 0.95)	0.90 (0.87, 0.94)	0.88 (0.84, 0.92)
Age	0.097 (0.074, 0.12)	0.092 (0.068, 0.12)	0.10 (0.08, 0.13)	0.089 (0.065, 0.11)
Years of education	−0.096 (−0.12, −0.07)	−0.084 (−0.11, −0.057)	−0.083 (−1.10, −0.055)	−0.085 (−0.11, −0.057)
Frailty	0.184 (0.08, 0.29)			0.15 (0.052, 0.26)
Social vulnerability		0.16 (0.088, 0.23)		0.13 (0.061, 0.21)
Protective factors			−0.16 (−0.24, −0.087)	−0.11 (−0.19, −0.036)
Model fit statistics
BIC	11,776	12,183	11,834	11,674
AIC	11,747	12,213	11,863	11,633
Wave 1 to wave 3
Intercept	2.40 (2.12, 2.68)	2.60 (2.31, 2.88)	3.77 (3.33, 4.22)	2.95 (2.42, 3.48)
Baseline cognitive state	1.14 (1.08, 1.19)	1.14 (1.08, 1.19)	1.13 (1.08, 1.19)	1.12 (1.07, 1.18)
Age	0.19 (0.16, 0.23)	0.19 (0.16, 0.22)	0.20 (0.16, 0.23)	0.19 (0.16, 0.22)
Years of education	−0.075 (−0.110, –0.039)	−0.062 (−0.097, −0.027)	−0.057 (−0.09, −0.021)	−0.057 (−0.09, −0.021)
Frailty	0.40 (0.27, 0.54)			0.38 (0.24, 0.51)
Social vulnerability		0.14 (0.051, 0.24)		0.10 (0.01, 0.20)
Protective factors			−0.21 (−0.31, −0.11)	−0.19 (−0.28, −0.087)
Model fit statistics
BIC	10,560	10,881	10,620	10,534
AIC	10,533	10,853	10,593	10,496

Values are shown as β (95% confidence interval) apart from AIC (Akaike information criterion) and Bayesian information criteria (BIC).

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